ANALISIS PERBANDINGAN METODE PERAMALAN (FORECASTING) PENJUALAN MOTOR LISTRIK PADA CV SANTOSA ABADI MOTOR PELAIHARI

Indriani Dwi Lestari; Bella Puspita Rininda; Widiya Astuti Alam Sur; Marliza Noor Hayatie

doi:10.36352/raj.v4i2.899

Indriani Dwi Lestari Politeknik Negeri Tanah Laut
Bella Puspita Rininda Politeknik Negeri Tanah Laut
Widiya Astuti Alam Sur Politeknik Negeri Tanah Laut
Marliza Noor Hayatie Politeknik Negeri Tanah Laut

DOI: https://doi.org/10.36352/raj.v4i2.899

Keywords: Forecasting, Trend Moment method, Semi Average method, Least Square method

Abstract

The aim of this study is to identify the most accurate and effective forecasting method for CV. Santosa Abadi Motor Pelaihari in predicting the sales of electric motor products for the upcoming period. This research is a descriptive quantitative study utilizing secondary data, consisting of electric motor product sales data from 2023 through January-June 2024, obtained from the Administration department of CV Santosa Abadi Motor Pelaihari. The analysis involves comparing three forecasting methods: Trend Moment, Semi Average, and Least Square, and evaluating the accuracy of each method using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The results indicate that the Trend Moment method yields a forecasting error percentage of 71%, the Semi Average method results in 23%, and the Least Square method shows 28%. Based on these findings, it can be concluded that the Semi Average method is more suitable for forecasting electric motor sales at CV Santosa Abadi Motor Pelaihari.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

Afrizal, M. et al. (2023) “Implementasi Forecasting Penjualan Barang Elektronik Menggunakan Metode Semi Average Pada Toko Alex Elektronik,” (Doctoral dissertation, Universitas Dehasen Bengkulu), 2(2).
Darmadi, D. (2013) “Pengaruh Promosi Penjualan Terhadap Penjualan (Studi Kasus PT . Astra Internasional Tbk-TSO Cabang Soetoyo Malang),” Jurnal Administrasi Bisnis (JAB), 2(1).
Herlambang, L.A. (2021) “Analisis Peramalan Penjualan Sepeda dan Motor Listrik PT Magnum Molis Indonesia,” Computer and Science Industrial Engineering (COMASIE), 4(1), hal. 130–138. Tersedia pada: http://repository.upbatam.ac.id/578/.
Hernando, W. dan Diana (2020) “Analisis Dan Peramalan (Forecast) Dalam Penjualan Sepeda Motor Yamaha Pada PT. Lautan Teduh,” In Bina Darma Conference on Computer Science (BDCCS), 2(4), hal. 325–336.
Muqtadiroh, F.A. et al. (2015) “Analisis Peramalan Penjualan Semen Non-Curah (ZAK) PT Semen Indonesia (Persero) TBK Pada Area Jawa Timur,” In Seminar Nasional Teknologi Informasi dan Komunikasi, 2015(pp. 308-310).
Rohadi, E. et al. (2021) “Sistem Peramalan Penjualan Studi Kasus Topi Punggul H.M. Thoha dengan Metode Trend Moment,” Seminar Informatika Aplikatif Polinema, 2021(pp. 115-120).
Septiawan, R.B. dan Astuti, E.Z. (2016) “Perbandingan Metode Setengah Rata-Rata Dan Metode Kuadrat Terkecil Untuk Peramalan Pendapatan Perusahaan Di BLU UPTD Terminal Mangkang Semarang,” Techno.Com, 15(2), hal. 132–139.
Wardah, S. dan Iskandar (2016) “Analisis Peramalan Penjualan Produk Keripik Pisang Kemasan Bungkus (Studi Kasus : Home Industry Arwana Food Tembilahan),” Jurnal Teknik Industri, 11(3), hal. 135–142.
Utama, R.E. et al. (2019) Manajemen Operasi. Jakarta: Cetakan Pertama.